How long your money will last in retirement comes down to four numbers: withdrawal rate, return, inflation and taxes.
Retirement savings last as long as withdrawals stay at or below what the portfolio earns after inflation. In a hypothetical model with 6% returns and 3% inflation, a 4% starting withdrawal lasts about 43 years, 5% about 29 years and 6% about 22 years, before taxes, fees and poor early markets shorten that runway.
Key Takeaways
- In a hypothetical constant-return model (6% return, 3% inflation), a 4% starting withdrawal lasts about 42.8 years and an 8% withdrawal about 15.2 years; at a 4% return the 4% rate lasts about 28.5 years.
- A 65-year-old man has a life expectancy of 18.12 years and a woman 20.66 years, and 34.9% of women who reach 65 live to 90 (SSA).
- CPI-U rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending August 2026 (BLS), and Social Security benefits rose 2.8% for 2026 (SSA).
- The average retired worker benefit is about $2,071 a month in January 2026, and each year of delay past full retirement age adds 8% up to age 70 (SSA).
- Pre-tax withdrawals are ordinary income; with Social Security in the picture, a 2026 couple in the 12% bracket can pay roughly 18% to 20% on an extra $10,000 withdrawn (worked example below; IRS Pub. 915).
- RMD divisors imply a minimum withdrawal of about 3.77% of the balance at age 73 and about 8.2% at age 90 (IRS Pub. 590-B).
Four Primary-Source Numbers Behind Retirement Runway in 2026
Couple figure assumes independent survival of a 65-year-old man and woman using the SSA Period Life Table, 2023, as used in the 2026 Trustees Report. Period tables exclude future mortality improvement, so actual odds may run higher.
What decides how long retirement money lasts?
Four numbers decide it: the starting withdrawal rate, the portfolio return, inflation, and the taxes and fees taken out along the way. The withdrawal rate is the first-year withdrawal divided by the starting balance, so $40,000 from $1,000,000 is a 4% rate. A shorthand version of this math is the $1,000 a month rule for retirement, which ties monthly income to a savings target.
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When withdrawals rise with prices, what matters is the real return: the return minus inflation. A withdrawal at or below the real return can last indefinitely in a simple model; above it, the account shrinks faster each year until it reaches zero.
The other half of the question is how long the money must last, which depends on retirement age and life span.
| Factor | How it changes the runway | 2026 reference point |
|---|---|---|
| Withdrawal rate | The single largest lever; each extra percentage point removes years | 4% of $1,000,000 = $40,000 in year one |
| Return | Higher average returns extend the runway, but the order of returns matters too | Modeled at 4% and 6% (hypothetical) |
| Inflation | Raises the withdrawal needed to keep the same lifestyle | CPI-U up 3.4% for the 12 months ending August 2026 (BLS) |
| Taxes | Pre-tax withdrawals must be grossed up to cover income tax | Standard deduction $32,200 joint, plus age 65 add-ons |
| Fees | Work like a lower return every year | A 1% annual fee turns a 6% return into 5% |
| Time horizon | Sets how many years the money must cover | SSA life expectancy at 65: 18.12 years (men), 20.66 years (women) |
How many years does each withdrawal rate last?
At a 4% starting withdrawal, a portfolio lasts roughly 28 to 43 years in the hypothetical model below, depending on whether it earns 4% or 6% a year; at 6% the range falls to roughly 18 to 22 years. Results are in years, so they apply to any balance; the dollar columns show what each rate means on $500,000 and $1,000,000.
| Starting withdrawal rate | Year-one withdrawal on $500,000 | Year-one withdrawal on $1,000,000 | Years it lasts at a 4% return | Years it lasts at a 6% return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $15,000 | $30,000 | 40.0 | 60+ |
| 4% | $20,000 | $40,000 | 28.5 | 42.8 |
| 5% | $25,000 | $50,000 | 22.1 | 29.1 |
| 6% | $30,000 | $60,000 | 18.1 | 22.2 |
| 7% | $35,000 | $70,000 | 15.3 | 18.0 |
| 8% | $40,000 | $80,000 | 13.3 | 15.2 |
Hypothetical assumptions: withdrawals at the start of each year, raised 3% a year for inflation, a constant annual return, and no taxes or fees. The figures illustrate the arithmetic only and do not represent any investment or predict future results.
Two details most calculators skip: first, a 1% annual fee works like a 5% return instead of 6%, so a 4% withdrawal at 5% lasts about 33.6 years instead of 42.8. Second, inflation is as powerful as return: at a 4% withdrawal and 6% return, the money lasts more than 60 years at 2% inflation, about 43 years at 3% and about 33 years at 4%.
For a single-balance walk-through by savings level, the guide on how much to have in a 401(k) by age covers the $500,000 case and the Rule of 25.
How long does retirement money actually need to last?
For a 65-year-old, the planning horizon is usually longer than average life expectancy, because roughly half of people outlive the average. The SSA Period Life Table, 2023, used in the 2026 Trustees Report puts life expectancy at 65 at 18.12 years for men and 20.66 years for women, yet a meaningful share live well past those ages.
| Age reached (starting from 65) | Men | Women | At least one spouse of a 65-year-old couple |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 44.9% | 56.6% | 76.1% |
| 90 | 24.1% | 34.9% | 50.6% |
| 95 | 8.0% | 14.4% | 21.3% |
Single-person figures divide the SSA “number of lives” at each age by the number alive at 65; the couple column assumes independent survival. A period table ignores future mortality improvement, so these odds more likely understate longevity than overstate it.
The practical point: a married couple at 65 has about a coin-flip chance that one spouse reaches 90, which is 25 years of withdrawals. That is why many projections run to 90 or 95 rather than to life expectancy. Longevity also shapes claiming decisions, covered in the Social Security break-even age analysis.
Why does the order of returns matter as much as the average?
The order matters because withdrawals during an early downturn sell assets at low prices, leaving less to recover later. The table above uses steady returns, so it shows a best-case shape for a given average; two retirees with the same average return can run out years apart if one meets the bad years first.
The first decade of retirement carries most of this risk. The mechanics, the fragile-decade concept and common hedges are laid out in the guide to sequence of returns risk, and the debate over what starting rate is defensible today sits in the 4% rule and taxes. The takeaway here: read a constant-return table as a ceiling, since a projection that includes bad early years will usually show fewer years.
How do taxes change how long pre-tax savings last?
Taxes shorten the runway because every dollar from a traditional 401(k) or IRA is ordinary income, so the account has to release more than the household actually spends. Those withdrawals can also make up to 85% of Social Security taxable once provisional income passes $32,000 to $44,000 for joint filers (IRS Pub. 915).
Worked example (hypothetical, 2026 federal rules). A married couple, both 65, receives $3,208 a month in Social Security, which matches the SSA estimate for an average aged couple in January 2026 ($38,496 a year). They take money only from a traditional IRA. Deductions are the $32,200 joint standard deduction, the age 65 additional deduction of $1,650 each (Rev. Proc. 2025-32), and the new $6,000 per-person senior deduction for 2025 through 2028 (IRS). Brackets are the 2026 joint brackets: 10% to $24,800 and 12% to $100,800 (IRS).
| IRA withdrawal | Taxable Social Security | Taxable income | Federal income tax | Tax on the last $10,000 withdrawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 (4% of $1,000,000) | $18,961 | $11,461 | $1,146 | $1,146 (11.5%) |
| $50,000 (5%) | $27,461 | $29,961 | $3,099 | $1,953 (19.5%) |
| $60,000 (6%) | $32,722 | $45,222 | $4,931 | $1,832 (18.3%) |
The couple sits in the 12% bracket throughout, yet the extra $10,000 between $40,000 and $50,000 is taxed at about 19.5%, because each IRA dollar also pulls up to 85 cents of Social Security into taxable income. This is the pattern described in retirement tax torpedoes. The senior deduction is scheduled to end after 2028; without it, tax on the $40,000 withdrawal would be about $2,346. State income tax, if any, comes on top.
Health costs draw on the same income. The standard 2026 Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 a month per person, and income-related surcharges begin above $218,000 of joint MAGI (CMS); see Medicare costs in retirement. Because qualified Roth withdrawals are not taxable and do not count toward provisional income, some retirees with large pre-tax balances look at Roth conversions in lower-bracket years, and a financial professional can model whether that trade fits a given household.
How does Social Security change the runway?
Social Security extends the runway by covering part of spending with lifelong income that rises with inflation, so the portfolio has less to supply. The estimated average benefit for all retired workers is $2,071 a month in January 2026, after a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet).
Consider a household that wants $80,000 a year before tax. With $38,496 of Social Security, the portfolio needs to supply about $41,500 plus tax, which is roughly a 4.2% rate on $1,000,000. In the hypothetical model, that rate lasts about 40 years at a 6% return and about 27 years at 4%. Without Social Security, the full $80,000 would be an 8% rate and last only 13 to 15 years.
Claiming age changes the mix. Each year of delay past full retirement age adds 8% to the benefit up to 70 for people born in 1943 or later (SSA delayed retirement credits). Delaying means the portfolio pays more of the bills early, then less for life; the trade-off and its tax side effects are covered in delaying Social Security to fund Roth conversions.
What do RMD rules imply about withdrawal pace after 73?
RMD rules force a rising minimum withdrawal from tax-deferred accounts, starting near 3.8% at 73 and passing 8% by 90, but they set a floor on withdrawals, not a spending plan. RMDs begin at 73 for people born 1951 to 1959 and at 75 for those born 1960 or later.
| Age | Uniform Lifetime Table divisor | Minimum as a share of prior year-end balance |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | 26.5 | 3.77% |
| 75 | 24.6 | 4.07% |
| 80 | 20.2 | 4.95% |
| 85 | 16.0 | 6.25% |
| 90 | 12.2 | 8.20% |
Divisors come from Table III in IRS Publication 590-B. A common misconception is that RMDs drain the account: the divisor is recalculated yearly, so the formula never empties it, and unspent RMDs can be reinvested in a taxable account after tax. The real effect is on taxes, as forced withdrawals can lift income into higher brackets and Medicare surcharge tiers.
What can make retirement savings last longer?
The levers that extend a portfolio are spending less early, raising guaranteed income, staying flexible after bad years and reducing the taxes and fees each withdrawal carries. Common levers include:
- A lower starting rate. In the hypothetical table, moving from 5% to 4% at a 6% return adds about 14 years.
- Flexible withdrawal rules. Spending cuts after poor years and raises after good ones, as in the guardrails withdrawal strategy, trade income stability for durability.
- A cash or bond reserve. A retirement bucket strategy aims to avoid selling stocks during a downturn in the fragile first decade.
- A larger guaranteed floor. Delaying Social Security, or using a pension annuity option, shifts longevity risk away from the portfolio.
- Tax-aware withdrawal order. Coordinating taxable, pre-tax and Roth accounts, and filling low brackets before RMDs start, can lower lifetime tax drag.
- Lower costs. In the model, removing a 1% fee moves a 4% withdrawal from about 34 years to about 43 years.
What mistakes make retirement money run out sooner?
The most common mistakes are planning to average life expectancy, treating a pre-tax balance as spendable, and ignoring inflation; each makes a plan look longer-lived than it is.
Life expectancy is not an end date: about half of people outlive it, and couples plan to the second death. A $1,000,000 traditional IRA is not $1,000,000 of spending power: see the tax gross-up above. Inflation compounds: at 3% inflation, a $40,000 withdrawal becomes about $53,800 in year 11 and about $72,200 in year 21.
Frequently asked questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
In a hypothetical model with withdrawals rising 3% a year for inflation, $1 million lasts about 43 years at a $40,000 starting withdrawal and a 6% return, about 29 years at $50,000, and about 22 years at $60,000. At a 4% return they fall to roughly 29, 22 and 18 years, before taxes and fees.
What withdrawal rate makes retirement money last indefinitely?
A portfolio lasts indefinitely in a simple model when the inflation-adjusted withdrawal stays at or below the real return, meaning the return minus inflation. With a 6% return and 3% inflation, a 3% starting withdrawal lasted more than 60 years in the hypothetical model. No rate is guaranteed to last in real markets.
How many years should retirement savings be planned to last?
Many planners model at least 30 years for a 65-year-old because life expectancy is an average, not a ceiling. Under the SSA period life table used in the 2026 Trustees Report, 34.9% of women and 24.1% of men who reach 65 live to 90, and about half of 65-year-old couples have at least one spouse reach 90.
How much does inflation shorten how long money lasts?
In the hypothetical model with a 4% starting withdrawal and a 6% return, the money lasts more than 60 years at 2% inflation, about 43 years at 3% and about 33 years at 4%. CPI-U rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending August 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Do taxes on 401(k) and IRA withdrawals make money run out faster?
Yes. Withdrawals from traditional 401(k) and IRA accounts are ordinary income, so the gross withdrawal must be larger than the spending it funds. Those withdrawals can also make more Social Security taxable, which can push the effective tax on an extra dollar well above the stated bracket. Qualified Roth withdrawals are not taxed.
How does delaying Social Security affect how long savings last?
Delaying past full retirement age raises the benefit 8% a year up to age 70 for people born in 1943 or later, according to SSA. The larger inflation-adjusted benefit reduces what the portfolio must supply later, though the portfolio usually covers more spending during the delay years.
Do required minimum distributions mean the money will run out?
No. RMDs set a minimum that must leave tax-deferred accounts, not a spending level. The Uniform Lifetime Table divisor is 26.5 at age 73 (about 3.77% of the prior year-end balance) and 12.2 at age 90 (about 8.2%). Money withdrawn but not spent can be reinvested in a taxable account after tax.
Methodology. Longevity odds are calculated from the SSA Period Life Table, 2023, as used in the 2026 Trustees Report. Other figures come from SSA, BLS, CMS and IRS primary sources cited inline. Runway tables are Q3 Advisors hypothetical calculations using the stated assumptions. Because this is a financial-wellbeing topic, anonymous forum anecdotes and unsourced calculator outputs were excluded.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional about your specific situation.
